专题报告：为什么更多增量政策仍然值得期待？

Economic Performance - In September, industrial production showed strong performance with a year-on-year increase of 5.4%, accelerating by 0.9 percentage points from August, exceeding the annual GDP growth target of 5%[4] - The service sector also rebounded, with the service production index increasing by 5.1% year-on-year in September, up by 0.5 percentage points from August[4] - Retail sales growth improved to 3.2% year-on-year in September, an increase of 1.1 percentage points from August, marking a return to above 3% after three months in the 2% range[4] Manufacturing Sector - High-tech manufacturing value added increased by 10.1% year-on-year in September, returning to double-digit growth, and was up by 1.5 percentage points from August[5] - Specific sectors within equipment manufacturing, such as railway, shipbuilding, and aerospace, saw year-on-year increases of 13.7%, 6.1%, 4.6%, and 4% respectively, all showing acceleration from August[5] Economic Challenges - Despite the positive indicators, the support for sustained economic recovery remains weak, with industrial production not fully matching terminal demand, leading to a decline in product sales rates and an expanded drop in PPI, which was -2.8% year-on-year in September[10] - Fixed asset investment remains heavily reliant on manufacturing investment, with manufacturing investment growth at 9.2% year-to-date, while real estate investment continues to decline at -10.1%[11] Income and Consumption - Per capita disposable income growth for residents was 5.2% year-on-year in the first three quarters, down by 0.2 percentage points from the previous quarter, indicating pressure on future consumption[13] - The decline in property and wage income was most pronounced, with property income growth down by 3 percentage points compared to last year, and wage income down by 1.4 percentage points[13] Policy Outlook - To achieve the annual GDP growth target of 5%, Q4 growth needs to reach 5.4%, requiring a rebound of 0.6 percentage points from Q3's 4.6%[16] - The government has indicated that nearly half of the incremental policies have been implemented, with more expected to accelerate, including potential interest rate cuts and adjustments to fiscal budgets[16][17] - Proposed policies may include further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates, as well as increased efforts to purchase unsold residential properties to stabilize housing prices[18]