FICC&资产配置周观察：“特朗普交易”博弈升温，美债利率走高

Group 1: Market Trends and Political Impact - The "Trump trade" has become a significant variable in market dynamics, with Trump's support in key swing states increasing. As of October 26, 2024, Polymarket predicts a 65.3% chance of Trump winning, 30.5% higher than Harris at 34.8%[1] - RCP polling shows Trump and Harris with probabilities of 48.5% and 48.4% respectively, indicating a shift from Trump's previous lagging position[1] - Factors contributing to Trump's rising support include the limited disaster relief response to Hurricane Milton, Musk's public endorsement, and the outcome of the vice-presidential debate[1] Group 2: Bond Market and Economic Indicators - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has rebounded to 4.25%, up 17 basis points, with expectations for year-end positioning in U.S. bonds[2] - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 96% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the FOMC on November 7, 2024, and a 70% chance of a total cut of 50 basis points by year-end[2] - Domestic bond yields for 10-year and 30-year bonds have risen by 3 basis points to 2.15% and 2.32% respectively, reflecting market concerns about U.S. fiscal policy post-election[3] Group 3: Currency and Commodity Markets - The RMB exchange rate is fluctuating, with gold prices remaining above $2,700 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and increased demand for safe-haven assets[4] - The U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio has exceeded 120%, indicating potential increases in U.S. debt regardless of the election outcome[4] - The global trend of central banks increasing gold reserves continues, with expectations for gold prices to potentially exceed $3,000 per ounce by 2025[4]