产业经济周观点：关注中国重启债务周期的可能

Group 1 - The report indicates that the long-term certainty in the US economy is the upward shift in inflation and interest rate levels, while the structure of inflation and economic policy choices post-election remain uncertain [1] - The market is currently influenced by short-term capital inflows, with ETFs potentially becoming a new entry path, leading to a "barbell" trading characteristic for growth stocks, which may serve as an important observation indicator for future growth stock rhythm [1] - Post-election economic policies in the US may lead to a potential restart of the debt cycle in China, necessitating close attention to sectors such as real estate, insurance, liquor, construction, steel, and state-owned enterprises [1] Group 2 - The report identifies three main reasons for the recent rise in US Treasury yields, including election disturbances, market expectations of economic stimulus policies, and concerns over US debt levels, with the fiscal deficit reaching $1.83 trillion for the fiscal year 2024 [9][12] - The report notes a high trading sentiment in the market, with small-cap stocks showing significant performance, as evidenced by the 3.92% increase in the CSI 1000 index [13] - Advanced manufacturing and consumption sectors are leading the market, with high-end manufacturing industries showing excess returns, particularly in black home appliances, photovoltaic equipment, and wind power equipment [20][21] Group 3 - The report highlights that foreign capital index futures positions have improved, indicating a relatively optimistic sentiment among foreign investors [24] - Upcoming macroeconomic data releases from the US and China are expected to be significant, with a focus on US PCE and non-farm employment data, as well as China's PMI data [26]