HDPI(SH:600027) Changjiang Securities·2024-10-28 07:47Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4]. Core Views - The company has shown a positive trend in demand, with a year-on-year increase in electricity generation in the third quarter, achieving 630.06 billion kilowatt-hours, which is a 3.18% increase [4][5]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the third quarter was 511.26 yuan per megawatt-hour, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.62%, driven by strong market pricing during peak season and a shift in the energy mix towards higher-priced gas power [4][5]. - The company is expected to achieve stable performance in the third quarter, supported by steady operations from its subsidiaries and limited changes in cost due to long-term coal contracts [5][6]. Summary by Sections Event Description - In the first three quarters of 2024, the company completed a total electricity generation of 1,684.59 billion kilowatt-hours, a decrease of approximately 2.46% year-on-year, with on-grid electricity of 1,577.21 billion kilowatt-hours, down about 2.52% year-on-year [4]. - The average on-grid electricity price for the first three quarters was approximately 510.46 yuan per megawatt-hour, a decrease of about 1.46% year-on-year [4]. Event Commentary - The company’s third-quarter performance showed a recovery in electricity generation, with coal power generation increasing by 3.71% year-on-year and gas power generation rising by 16.52% year-on-year, while hydropower generation decreased by 21.38% due to weaker water inflow [4][5]. - The overall revenue from the main business is expected to grow year-on-year due to the combined effect of increased volume and price [4]. Cost and Investment Outlook - The average price of coal at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by approximately 18.10 yuan per ton year-on-year, but is expected to rise by about 13.58 yuan per ton in 2024 compared to 2023, leading to limited changes in the company's cost structure [5]. - The company’s investment income is anticipated to grow steadily due to the recovery of wind power and the high level of new energy installations [5][6]. Group Asset Injection - The company is set to expand its scale with the injection of quality assets from the group, which will enhance its growth potential in the long term [6]. - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2024-2026 are adjusted to 0.60 yuan, 0.68 yuan, and 0.76 yuan, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 9.28 times, 8.10 times, and 7.30 times [6].