中集安瑞科：更新报告：24Q3运营表现好坏参半

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company has been downgraded to "Accumulate" from "Buy" [2][4]. Core Views - The company's revenue for Q3 2024 increased by 10.4% year-on-year, driven primarily by a 28.1% increase in the clean energy segment, which reached 4.72 billion RMB [1]. - New order intake for Q3 2024 decreased by 38.5% year-on-year to 4.36 billion RMB, with the clean energy segment seeing a 39.1% decline [2]. - Despite the decline in new orders, the total order backlog increased by 25.2% year-on-year to 27.73 billion RMB, indicating strong future business support [2]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - Q3 2024 revenue reached 6.49 billion RMB, up 10.4% year-on-year, with the clean energy segment contributing significantly [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue grew by 8.0% year-on-year to 17.97 billion RMB, while clean energy revenue rose by 26.2% to 12.60 billion RMB [1]. Order Intake and Backlog - New orders for Q3 2024 fell to 4.36 billion RMB, a 38.5% decrease year-on-year, with clean energy orders down 39.1% [2]. - The total new order intake for the first three quarters of 2024 increased by 5.1% year-on-year to 20.76 billion RMB, supported by a 22.1% rise in clean energy orders [2]. Profit Forecast Adjustments - The net profit forecasts for FY24-26 have been reduced by 2.9%, 4.5%, and 10.8% respectively, with projected net profits of 1.12 billion RMB, 1.34 billion RMB, and 1.52 billion RMB [2]. - The target price has been adjusted from 7.90 HKD to 7.55 HKD, reflecting a potential upside of 10.8% based on the FY25 target P/E ratio of 10.5x [2].