疫情后盈利增长的差异：来自微观数据的证据（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - The report highlights a significant divergence in post-pandemic earnings growth across U.S. counties, with areas less impacted by the pandemic experiencing faster earnings growth [2][6] - Average earnings in counties with stronger labor markets were estimated to be 18 percent higher between April 2020 and December 2021 compared to those with weaker labor markets [6] - The findings suggest that labor market competition has led to increased earnings disparities across counties while compressing earnings among workers within stronger labor markets [8][9] Summary by Sections Introduction - The post-pandemic U.S. labor market saw rapid divergence in earnings growth, with counties experiencing lower earnings losses at the onset of COVID-19 showing faster earnings growth [6] - Average earnings increased by 35 percent in the top 10 percentile counties, while only a 5 percent rise was observed in the bottom 10 percentile counties between January 2020 and December 2021 [6] Data - The analysis utilizes a comprehensive employer-employee dataset from Homebase, covering 9 million workers across over 1 million establishments in the U.S. [6][10] - The dataset provides detailed information on wages and hours, allowing for a granular analysis of worker earnings [10] Key Findings - Earnings growth diverged across counties, with the top decile counties experiencing cumulative growth over 46.07 percent higher than the bottom decile from 2020 to 2021 [15] - Nonmanagerial workers experienced a cumulative earnings growth of 29.7 percentage points higher than managerial workers during the same period [17] - Workers in smaller firms saw average earnings increase to 131.3 percent of their 2019 level by December 2021, compared to 115.1 percent for those in larger firms [18] Labor Market Conditions - The report establishes a positive relationship between local labor market strength and post-pandemic earnings growth, with a one-standard-deviation increase in labor market strength leading to a 6 percent increase in hourly wages and an 18 percent increase in total earnings [26] - The analysis employs a shift-share method to assess the impact of labor market conditions on earnings growth, highlighting the importance of local labor market dynamics [22][26]