在全球竞争加剧的情况下，欧洲转向电动汽车（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The European Union (EU) aims for a significant transition to electric vehicles (EVs) to meet climate goals, with targets for CO2 emissions reductions from cars and vans set for 2030 to 2035 [7][3] - The shift towards EVs is influenced by the increasing dominance of Chinese manufacturers in the global EV market, which poses competitive challenges for the EU automotive sector [3][10] - The report analyzes the macroeconomic implications of this transition, indicating that the short-term GDP cost for the EU is relatively small, estimated at 0.2-0.3 percent, while long-term impacts are close to zero [3][17] Summary by Sections Introduction - The EU has set ambitious climate goals, including a rapid transition to EVs, with regulations requiring significant reductions in CO2 emissions from new vehicles [7][3] - Current EV sales in the EU are around 15 percent, with a target of 65 percent by 2030 and 100 percent by 2035 [7][3] Historical Context - The report draws parallels between Japan's rise in the automotive sector during the 1960s-1980s and China's current position in the EV market, suggesting that China's market penetration could occur at a faster rate [13][28] Model Specification and Scenarios - The report employs two models: the GIMF-GVC model for short- to medium-term dynamics and a dynamic quantitative trade model for long-run effects [30][34] - The models simulate the impacts of the dual shocks of the EV transition and increased Chinese EV imports on the EU economy [12][30] Simulation Results - The report finds that the transition to EVs will have varying impacts across EU countries, with significant losses for smaller economies reliant on the automotive sector, such as Hungary and Czechia [17][10] - Protectionist policies, such as tariffs on Chinese EVs, would exacerbate GDP losses, while increased Chinese foreign direct investment (FDI) in Europe could mitigate some negative impacts [17][10] Climate Implications - The transition to EVs is expected to have positive climate implications, but the report emphasizes the need for policies to support affected workers and regions during the transition [17][19] Conclusion - The report concludes that while the transition to EVs presents challenges, with appropriate policies, the economic impacts can be managed, and the long-term benefits of the green transition outweigh the costs of inaction [19][18]