巴基斯坦：选定问题（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Pakistan's economy has lagged behind regional peers for over a decade, with GDP per capita growth averaging only 1.9% from 2000 to 2022, compared to 4.5% for Bangladesh and 7.5% for China, indicating a need for urgent policy corrections [5][6] - The report highlights macroeconomic distortions and policy-related restrictions, including protectionist interventions and insufficient investment in human capital, as key factors contributing to underperformance [5][8] - Structural reforms are essential for creating fiscal space, building human capital, and enabling private sector growth, with potential growth increases of about 2% over five years from consistent reform implementation [39][58] Summary by Sections Economic Performance and the Road Ahead - Pakistan's living standards have declined, with weak contributions from human and physical capital and shrinking productivity [8] - Economic growth from 2000 to 2020 was primarily driven by physical capital accumulation and increased labor hours, while total factor productivity (TFP) and labor quality contributions were significantly lower [8][19] - The country has struggled with declining export performance and limited trade openness, which hampers development and external viability [8][11] Drivers of Decline in Living Standards - The report identifies persistent resource misallocation and policy-induced distortions as major contributors to the decline in living standards and competitiveness [14][19] - Agriculture, characterized by low productivity and government interventions, exemplifies how policies can trap resources in low-productivity sectors [16][18] - The regulatory environment and public investment management issues have deterred domestic and foreign direct investment, leading to low FDI inflows compared to peers [20][21] Supporting Private Sector Development - To shift Pakistan onto a new economic trajectory, it is crucial to remove protectionist policies and enhance competition, which would spur innovation and resource reallocation [30][39] - The report emphasizes the need for improved public investment efficiency and tax collection to create space for higher investment in physical and human capital [30][53] - Structural reforms could lead to a 7% increase in output and a 6% reduction in the public debt-to-GDP ratio over five years, highlighting the potential for significant macroeconomic gains [57][59]