通货膨胀与劳动力市场：自下而上的视角（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed. Core Insights - U.S. inflation surged in 2021-22, peaking at 9.0% in June 2022, and has since declined to 2.5% by August 2024, primarily due to a drop in goods inflation, while services inflation remains elevated [2][6] - The study highlights a significant relationship between service sector wage growth and services inflation, indicating that tight labor markets have a persistent effect on inflation dynamics [2][6][22] - Local labor market tightness accounted for an average of 68.7% of services inflation (excluding housing) between Q3 2022 and Q1 2023, emphasizing the importance of labor market conditions in inflationary pressures [6][16] Summary by Sections Introduction - The report discusses the dramatic rise and subsequent decline of U.S. inflation, with a focus on the divergence between goods and services inflation [6] - It emphasizes the role of the labor market in inflation dynamics, noting that tight labor markets contribute significantly to inflation above target levels [6] Data and Measurements - The analysis utilizes proprietary microdata from Homebase, covering detailed wage and hour information for nearly 9 million workers across 1 million U.S. firms, complemented by price data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics [11][12] - The focus is on services inflation excluding housing, as this sector is more labor-intensive and sensitive to wage growth [11][12] Empirical Approach - The report employs a local projection instrumental variable (LP-IV) approach to estimate the wage-price pass-through, capturing the relationship between local labor market tightness and inflation [13][14] - The vacancy-to-unemployment ratio is used as a measure of labor market tightness, reflecting the dynamics of the post-pandemic economy [7][14] Findings - The results indicate a strong pass-through from local labor market tightness to wage growth, with a one-log-point increase in the vacancy-to-unemployment ratio leading to a 27 percentage point increase in year-on-year service wage growth over a 10-month horizon [16] - A one-percentage-point increase in service sector wage growth corresponds to a 0.32-percentage-point increase in year-on-year services inflation, suggesting significant inflationary pressures from wage growth [16] - The findings highlight that local labor market tightness was a key driver of inflation, accounting for a substantial share of inflation across various Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) [16][22] Conclusion - The report concludes that persistent labor market tightness will continue to exert upward pressure on inflation, complicating efforts to achieve inflation targets [22]