韩国养老金改革的参数选择（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the pension reform options in Korea. Core Insights - The aging population in Korea is projected to significantly challenge the financial sustainability of the public pension system, with public pension spending potentially increasing by 4% of GDP from 2020 to 2070, while contribution revenue remains largely constant [2][15]. - The report evaluates three main pension policy options to stabilize the public debt-to-GDP ratio: increasing the retirement age, raising social security contributions, and lowering the pension replacement rate. A combination of these adjustments is suggested to yield better results than using each policy in isolation [2][15]. Summary by Sections Introduction - Korea's demographic structure is rapidly changing due to lower fertility rates and increased life expectancy, leading to a higher old-age dependency ratio (OADR) [7][17]. - The OADR is expected to surpass that of Japan by around 2050, indicating a significant shift in the population age structure [17]. Demographic Changes and Pension Schemes - The Korean pension system is maturing, with pension spending increasing from 1.8% to 4.0% of GDP between 2009 and 2022, and projected to rise further due to demographic changes [9][29]. - The National Pension Scheme (NPS) is expected to go into deficit by 2041 and deplete its assets by 2055, despite previous reforms aimed at reducing replacement rates and increasing the retirement age [11][29]. Model and Results - The report utilizes a dynamic overlapping generation model to analyze the fiscal implications of aging and potential reforms [14][38]. - Under current policies, pension spending is projected to increase by 4 percentage points of GDP by 2070, while contribution revenue remains stable, leading to a projected increase in net public debt by nearly 180% of GDP by 2070 [15][55]. Reform Options - Various reform options are considered to stabilize pension deficits, including increasing contribution rates, raising the retirement age, and lowering the replacement rate. A significant increase in contribution rates could offset the upward pressure on public debt [57][59]. - The report highlights that raising the contribution rate by 13.8 percentage points could increase revenue by 7 percentage points of GDP by 2070, effectively countering the anticipated rise in pension spending [59].