Dayu Irrigation(300021) 天风证券·2024-10-28 08:10Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 4.04 yuan [5] Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 revenue was 6.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8.71%, and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 11.50% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company in Q3 2024 was 0.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%, but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.37% [1] - The company secured a major project worth 5.145 billion yuan, which is expected to positively impact its performance in 2024 and beyond [2] - The company adjusted its share repurchase plan, increasing the repurchase price ceiling from 4.5 yuan/share to 5.6 yuan/share and the total repurchase amount from 2000-3000 million yuan to 3000-5000 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was 18.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.17% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company for the first three quarters of 2024 was 0.30 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 17.66% [1] - The company's new orders in the first half of 2024 reached 3.914 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 61% [2] - The company's revenue is expected to grow to 4.565 billion yuan in 2024, 5.670 billion yuan in 2025, and 6.555 billion yuan in 2026 [3] Strategic Developments - The company is focusing on large-scale, long-term projects, which are expected to support its medium to long-term performance [2] - The company plans to acquire a 28% stake in Xinjiang Shangshan, which will enhance its integrated industry chain advantages [3] - The company's subsidiary, Huitong Technology, has over 20 years of experience in "mobile internet + smart water services," providing strong technical support for its business model [3] Industry and Market Position - The company operates in the agricultural and water resources sector, with a comprehensive business layout covering planning, investment, construction, and operation services [3] - The company's business spans over 50 countries and regions, with strong capabilities in providing integrated solutions and resource integration [3] - The company is leveraging opportunities from trillion-yuan national bonds and ultra-long-term special national bonds to drive its marketing transformation [2] Financial Projections - The company's EBITDA is projected to be 4.565 billion yuan in 2024, 6.144 billion yuan in 2025, and 7.478 billion yuan in 2026 [4] - The company's net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 0.969 billion yuan in 2024, 1.704 billion yuan in 2025, and 2.252 billion yuan in 2026 [3] - The company's EPS is forecasted to be 0.11 yuan in 2024, 0.20 yuan in 2025, and 0.26 yuan in 2026 [4]