宏观周报：2024年10月第四周

Market Overview - The market experienced a volatile upward trend, with an average weekly trading volume of 1.9097 trillion yuan, reflecting an increase compared to the previous week[6] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.17%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 2.53%[6] - The 10-month LPR was lowered by 25 basis points, exceeding market expectations of a 20 basis point cut, indicating a push for financial credit and real estate stability[1] Economic Indicators - From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 52,281.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.5%[7] - In September alone, profits dropped by 27.1% year-on-year, marking the lowest monthly figure since March 2020[8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to decline, exerting pressure on corporate revenues and profits due to low industrial product prices[8] Debt Market Insights - Bond market yields rose overall, with the 10-year government bond yield showing a support level at 2.15% and a resistance level at 2.05%[1] - The People's Bank of China continued to maintain a supportive stance, rolling over 700 billion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) to mitigate month-end liquidity pressures[6] International Context - The U.S. Federal Reserve remains cautious about interest rate cuts, with recent jobless claims at 227,000, lower than the expected 242,000[6] - The U.S. 10-month manufacturing PMI preliminary value was reported at 47.8, slightly above the expected 47.5, indicating a marginal tightening of rate cut expectations[6]