2024年10月房地产市场跟踪：重启货币化安置和土储专项债：止跌回稳转向信号下的老路新履

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the real estate industry, suggesting a gradual recovery from the downturn, driven by recent policy measures [2][6][10]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the recent combination of policies aims to stimulate market confidence and improve expectations, with a focus on both supply and demand to promote inventory reduction and market activity [6][10]. - The introduction of the "white list" credit policy is expected to increase the financing scale for approved projects to 4 trillion yuan, with 2.23 trillion yuan already approved as of mid-October [5][6]. - The report notes that the current inventory of unsold residential properties is nearing historical highs, with 732 million square meters of unsold properties as of September 2024, indicating significant pressure on the market [6][10]. Summary by Sections Policy Measures - The government has implemented several measures, including the "four cancellations" and "four reductions" to boost market stability, which include lifting purchase restrictions and lowering down payment ratios [2][6]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the new monetary settlement policy, which aims to address the housing needs of urban villages and dilapidated housing, with a target of 1 million units [3][8]. Market Performance - As of September, new residential prices continued to decline, with a year-on-year drop of 6.09%, while transaction volumes showed signs of recovery in October due to new policies [11][12]. - The report indicates that the sales area and sales amount of commercial housing decreased by 17.10% and 22.70% year-on-year, respectively, for the first nine months of 2024 [11][12]. Financing and Investment - The report notes a decrease in bond financing for real estate companies, with a total of 31.73 billion yuan in September, reflecting a cautious approach from financial institutions [14]. - The reintroduction of land reserve special bonds is expected to alleviate liquidity pressures and support the acquisition of unsold properties, enhancing the overall market outlook [9][10].