工业企业利润点评（2024.9）：低通胀深度拖累利润，稳增长重在优化内需

Group 1: Profit Trends - In September 2024, industrial enterprise profits fell by 3.5% year-on-year, with a significant monthly decline of 9.3 percentage points to -27.1%, marking the lowest level since March 2020[1] - The cumulative profit decline in the mining industry deepened by 1.5 percentage points to -10.7%, while manufacturing profits turned negative for the first time this year, dropping 4.9 percentage points to -3.8%[1] - Utility profits decreased by 2.6 percentage points to 12.1% due to declining electricity demand[1] Group 2: Revenue and Cost Dynamics - In September, the revenue decline was marginal, with a year-on-year drop of 0.0%, only slightly narrowing by 0.9 percentage points from August[1] - Operating costs increased by 1.0 percentage point to 1.0%, exacerbating profit declines by 0.6 percentage points to -12.9%[1] - The cumulative expense ratio rose significantly by 0.05 percentage points to 8.46%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.12 percentage points, further impacting September profits negatively by 0.6 percentage points to -6.3%[1] Group 3: Inventory and Demand Insights - Nominal inventory growth fell sharply by 0.5 percentage points to 4.6%, indicating weak consumption and investment demand[1] - Actual inventory growth only slightly increased by 0.6 percentage points to 7.6%, reflecting a mild recovery in the current inventory cycle[1] - The deep decline in industrial prices suggests weak sustainability in consumption and investment demand, leading to uncertainty in future demand outlooks[1] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The report anticipates a moderate improvement in industrial enterprise profit growth in the future, but warns against overly optimistic expectations[1] - Risks include weaker-than-expected improvements in domestic demand, which could hinder economic recovery efforts[1] - The need for fiscal expansion and effective policy measures is emphasized to stimulate consumption and investment[1]