洽洽食品：2024年三季报点评：利润弹性持续显现，期待Q4旺季表现

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 4.76 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 6.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 630 million yuan, up 23.8% year-on-year [1] - The third quarter of 2024 saw a revenue of 1.86 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.7%, and a net profit of 290 million yuan, reflecting a 21.4% year-on-year growth [1] - The company has effectively adjusted its distribution channels, setting the stage for a strong performance in the fourth quarter, particularly during the year-end festive season [1] - The company has implemented promotional strategies for its sunflower seeds and nuts, which have shown positive results, although there was some pressure on the sales of nut gift boxes in September [1] Financial Performance - The gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 30.2%, an increase of 4.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for Q3 2024 was 33.1%, up 6.3 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decrease in raw material prices [2] - The net profit margin for the first three quarters was 13.2%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points [2] - The company has announced a new stock option plan for 2024, aimed at incentivizing 29 core employees with 4.18 million stock options, which is expected to enhance employee motivation and support long-term development [2] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2024-2026 is 980 million yuan, 1.15 billion yuan, and 1.35 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 1.93 yuan, 2.28 yuan, and 2.66 yuan [3] - The dynamic PE ratios for the same period are projected to be 17 times, 15 times, and 12 times, respectively, maintaining the "Buy" rating [3]