KWEICHOW MOUTAI(SH:600519)2024-10-28 10:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [5]. Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 39.7 billion yuan in Q3 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 15.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 19.1 billion yuan, up 13.2% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, total revenue grew by 16.9% year-on-year, while net profit increased by 15% [1]. - The revenue from Moutai liquor showed steady growth, with a year-on-year increase of 16.3% in Q3 and 15.9% for the first three quarters. However, the growth rate of series liquor slowed down, with Q3 revenue up 13.1% year-on-year and 24.4% for the first three quarters. The report suggests that the company needs to cautiously adjust the short-term supply-demand balance for Moutai liquor, anticipating a slowdown in revenue growth in Q4 due to a high price base [1][2]. - The report indicates a slowdown in the growth of wholesale and agency channels, with Q3 revenue from these channels increasing by 9.7% year-on-year, while direct sales channels saw a 23.5% increase. The direct sales channel accounted for 46% of total revenue in Q3 [2]. - The net profit margin for Moutai liquor in Q3 was 47.7%, reflecting a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.99 percentage points, attributed to an increase in tax and sales expense ratios [2]. Financial Forecasts - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 173.2 billion yuan in 2024, with a growth rate of 15.04%. The net profit is expected to reach 84.5 billion yuan, with a profit growth rate of 13.03%. The diluted EPS for 2024 is forecasted at 67.25 yuan, with corresponding P/E ratios of 23, 21, and 19 for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [4][3].