农林牧渔行业周报:生猪四季度供需双增,需关注消费提振力度及疫情变化
Guotou Securities·2024-10-28 10:28

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Leading the Market - A" for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector [4]. Core Viewpoints - The report highlights a dual increase in supply and demand for live pigs in the fourth quarter, emphasizing the need to monitor consumer demand and changes in the epidemic situation [1][16]. - The average price of live pigs this week is 17.41 CNY/kg, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 3.22% and a two-week decrease of 0.65% [16]. - The report suggests that the pig farming sector should focus on companies such as Wen's Foodstuffs, Muyuan Foods, and Shennong Group, while the white feather chicken sector should pay attention to companies like Shengnong Development and Yisheng Biological [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Weekly Market Review - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector increased by 3.98% this week, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 0.79% [9][10]. - All sub-sectors within agriculture showed positive growth, with the animal health sector leading at +7.56% [11]. 2. Industry Data Tracking 2.1. Pig Farming - The average daily slaughter volume of live pigs is 148,600 heads, with a week-on-week increase of 2.25% [16]. - The report notes a significant fluctuation in pig prices, with a rebound expected as consumer demand improves with cooler weather [1][16]. 2.2. Poultry Farming - The average price of white feather broilers is 7.53 CNY/kg, with a week-on-week increase of 1.35% [21]. - The price of chicken seedlings is stable, with slight improvements in market sentiment among farmers [21]. 2.3. Planting Sector - The average price of corn is 2,245.63 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.08% [27]. - The average price of domestic sugar is 6,191.00 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 1.76% [27]. 2.4. Aquaculture - The average price of carp is 18.00 CNY/kg, with no change week-on-week, but a year-on-year increase of 5.88% [32]. - The average price of shrimp is 320.00 CNY/kg, remaining stable week-on-week, with a year-on-year increase of 6.67% [32]. 3. Industry Events - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs expects soybean production to remain stable at over 20 million tons for the year [35]. - U.S. corn exports to China have significantly decreased, with a year-on-year drop of 98% [35].