周大福：期待下半财年表现改善

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) with a target price of 7.53 HKD [1] Core Views - The company reported a preliminary operational and financial update indicating a 21% decline in retail value for FY25Q2, with mainland China down 19% and Hong Kong, Macau, and others down 31% [1] - The same-store sales growth showed a decline of 24% in mainland China and 31% in Hong Kong and Macau [1] - The average selling price of gold products remained resilient, with mainland China increasing to 6400 HKD and Hong Kong and Macau to 9400 HKD [1] - The company continues to optimize pricing and product offerings to meet diverse customer preferences, resulting in an increase in the sales proportion of higher-margin products from 5.0% to 12.8% [1] - The company expects a revenue decline of approximately 18% to 22% and a net profit decrease of about 42% to 46% for FY25H1 [1] - Adjusted net profit decline is expected to narrow to about 12% to 16% due to higher average selling prices and effective product optimization strategies [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For FY25Q2, retail value decreased by 21%, with mainland China contributing 88% and Hong Kong, Macau, and others contributing 12% [1] - Same-store sales and volume declined significantly, with mainland same-store sales down 24% and volume down 33% [1] - The company anticipates FY25-27 revenues of 91.3 billion HKD, 97.9 billion HKD, and 106.0 billion HKD, respectively, with adjusted net profits of 5.8 billion HKD, 6.1 billion HKD, and 6.8 billion HKD [1] Market Conditions - External macroeconomic factors, particularly high gold prices, continue to impact consumer sentiment and spending [1] - The company noted that the recent Golden Week in mainland China showed a trend of narrowing same-store sales declines [1] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing online customer engagement and product planning to cater to online consumer demands, with e-commerce contributing 5.4% to retail value [1] - The contribution of franchise stores to retail value in mainland China slightly increased to 70.9% [1]