宏观周报：市场有哪些期待？

Group 1: Policy Expectations - The upcoming National People's Congress Standing Committee meeting is scheduled from November 4 to 8, 2024, with market expectations of a fiscal policy announcement potentially reaching a scale of 10 trillion RMB over three years[4] - Current fiscal space estimates suggest a potential increase in ordinary government bond issuance by 0.15 to 0.55 trillion RMB if the deficit ratio is raised to 3.2%-3.5%[5] - The total fiscal space for this year is projected to be around 10 trillion RMB, with significant contributions from various measures including special bonds and adjustments to local government debt limits[6] Group 2: Market Trends - The bond market is currently experiencing a cautious sentiment due to a data vacuum, with the October economic data expected to draw attention in November[11] - Despite the overall bullish trend in the bond market, short-term fluctuations are anticipated due to upcoming tax periods and increased local government bond issuance[11] - The sentiment in the stock market remains positive, contributing to the "stock-bond seesaw" effect observed in current market dynamics[11] Group 3: U.S. Election Impact - Trump has gained a lead in polls, particularly in swing states, indicating a potential shift in the political landscape that could affect market conditions[16] - The probability of Trump winning is increasing, which may influence the U.S. dollar and treasury yields to rise further[17] - Despite the current high levels of the U.S. dollar and treasury yields, a reversal is not anticipated in the near term due to strong economic data and market sentiment[17] Group 4: Currency Outlook - The RMB faces depreciation pressure amid a strong dollar and rising U.S. treasury yields, despite domestic support measures[17] - Major banks are actively providing support for the RMB in the spot market, reflecting ongoing efforts to stabilize the currency[17]