宏观周报：美债收益率攀升 美元指数逆势走高

Economic Indicators - The US dollar index rose to approximately 104.3, marking a nearly 3% increase year-to-date, the highest since late July[6] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond increased to 4.25%, up 55 basis points since the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut on September 18[6] - In September, the industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 5.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[7] Consumer and Retail Data - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a growth acceleration of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[8] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales amounted to 36,573 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%[8] Sector Performance - In September, 36 out of 41 major industries reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in sectors such as transportation equipment manufacturing (13.7%) and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (10.6%)[7] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a decline of 1.0%, while new energy vehicles surged by 48.5%[7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The pace of inflation decline in the US has slowed, leading to adjustments in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts[6] - Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices have heightened market concerns about global economic recovery, contributing to a rebound in the dollar index[6]