中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】政策杨畅：工业企业利润的裂口-——当前经济与政策思考-20241028

Core Insights - The total profit of industrial enterprises in China for the first nine months of 2024 reached 52,281.6 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.5%, contrasting with a 0.5% increase in the previous eight months [2] - The profit total showed a slight month-on-month increase, but the high base from the previous year significantly depressed the year-on-year growth rate, with a calculated year-on-year decline of 27.0% for September, widening the drop by 9.3 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - The pressure from rigid costs remains evident, with operating costs rising by 1.0% year-on-year in September, and after excluding price factors, the year-on-year growth was 3.2%, which is 2.4 percentage points higher than the revenue growth rate [2] - Accounts receivable pressure continues to increase, with accounts receivable and notes reaching 25.72 trillion yuan at the end of September, a 0.86% increase month-on-month, and a 1.46% increase after excluding price factors [2] - Finished goods inventory slightly decreased to 6.47 trillion yuan, down 0.9% month-on-month, indicating a minor destocking trend [2] - State-owned enterprises saw a year-on-year profit decline of 36.3%, with the drop widening by 18.4 percentage points compared to the previous month [2] - Foreign enterprises experienced a year-on-year profit decline of 31.1%, with the drop expanding by 22.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, marking the lowest point since 2023 [2] - The September industrial profit data reflects the operational efficiency of industrial enterprises over the first nine months, with subsequent policies from macro departments expected to support economic operations and potentially restore corporate profits [2]