中泰证券：【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】轻工张潇：存量时代的奢侈品分析框架：分化的底层逻辑-20241028

Group 1: Core Insights - The underlying logic of luxury goods demand is driven by individual self-positioning in a democratic society, where luxury brands provide symbols to meet top-tier users' social positioning needs [2][3] - The luxury goods supply is understood as issuing social currency, maintaining value stability, with the principle of maintaining "scarcity" being crucial for pricing power [3] - As China's growth rate slows, the global luxury goods industry enters a new normal of stock, leading to increased differentiation between core and non-core customers [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Core customers, representing 1% of the consumer base, contribute 21% of demand, showing minimal income impact on their consumption, while non-core customers contribute 79% but exhibit significant macroeconomic volatility [3] - The best-performing single-brand company, Hermès, has shown the highest revenue and profit growth over the past 14 years, with the lowest volatility compared to multi-brand companies like LVMH [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - For long-term investment, it is recommended to wait for suitable prices at the cycle bottom, focusing on opportunities in Hermès [3] - Short-term trading opportunities can be captured by observing fashion elasticity, with brands like Prada and Gucci being highlighted for their potential [3] - The importance of adhering to principles in luxury brand management outweighs the significance of brand resource endowments, with successful Chinese companies in luxury brand operations being noted for their potential [3]