CNOOC(SH:600938) Xinda Securities·2024-10-28 15:31Investment Rating - The investment rating for China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) is "Buy" for both A-shares and H-shares [1][2]. Core Views - Despite a decline in oil prices, the company has managed to increase profits, demonstrating resilience against oil price fluctuations [1]. - In Q3 2024, CNOOC reported a revenue of 326.02 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 19.47%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 115.87 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.07% [1][2]. - The average selling price of oil decreased to 76.41 USD per barrel, a decline of 7.14% year-on-year, but the company still achieved positive net profit growth [1][2]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, CNOOC's revenue was 326.02 billion yuan, with a net profit of 115.87 billion yuan, and basic earnings per share (EPS) of 0.78 yuan, up 9.86% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company’s oil and gas production increased by 7% year-on-year, although it faced a decline in production due to typhoon impacts [1][2]. - Capital expenditures for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 95.3 billion yuan, with Q3 capital expenditures at 32.2 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% [2]. Earnings Forecast - The forecasted net profits for CNOOC from 2024 to 2026 are 154.54 billion yuan, 163.12 billion yuan, and 169.76 billion yuan, with respective year-on-year growth rates of 24.8%, 5.6%, and 4.1% [2]. - The expected EPS for the same period is projected to be 3.25 yuan, 3.43 yuan, and 3.57 yuan per share [2]. Valuation Metrics - As of October 28, 2024, the price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for A-shares is projected to be 8.42, 7.98, and 7.67 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [2]. - The H-shares are expected to have a P/E ratio of 5.28, 5.00, and 4.80 for the same years [2].