钢铁与大宗商品行业周报：降息如期而至，会议预期再添动力

Investment Rating - The report does not provide a specific investment rating for the steel and commodity industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on market uncertainty, with expectations leaning towards a potential Trump victory influencing trading strategies [1][10]. - The People's Bank of China announced a reduction in the 1-year LPR to 3.10% and the 5-year LPR to 3.60%, marking the largest cut since 2019, which is expected to boost market confidence [1][10]. - The steel sector has shown mixed performance, with a 14.1% increase over the past month, but a 5.6% decline over the past year [1]. Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The U.S. jobless claims decreased to 227,000, while continuing claims rose to 1.897 million, indicating potential risks for rising unemployment rates [1]. - The market is closely monitoring the upcoming U.S. election, with significant implications for economic policies [1]. Industry Performance - The steel sector's performance over the past month is 14.1%, while the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 16.3% [1]. - The report notes that the steel price is stabilizing in the short term, with expectations of fluctuations due to seasonal transitions [11]. Commodity Prices - Rebar prices have increased week-on-week, driven by improved macro expectations despite weak demand [11]. - Iron ore prices have also seen a week-on-week increase, influenced by the LPR cut and market sentiment [11]. - Coal prices are expected to remain stable, with winter demand anticipated to rise [12]. Individual Commodity Insights - Copper prices have weakened due to reduced expectations for a significant Fed rate cut and a strong dollar, with market sentiment turning cautious [12][13]. - Aluminum prices have risen due to increasing costs from alumina and supportive government policies [13]. - International oil prices have fluctuated, influenced by geopolitical risks and domestic monetary policy adjustments [13]. Market Tracking - The report provides detailed performance metrics for various sectors, indicating that non-ferrous metals and basic chemicals outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, while steel and coal sectors lagged [14][15]. - The report lists the top-performing stocks in the steel sector, with notable gains from companies like Jiugang Hongxing and Benxi Steel [21].