东海证券：晨会纪要-20241029

Key Recommendations - Guibao Pet (301498) shows rapid growth in its proprietary brand and a significant trend towards high-end products, with a revenue of 3.671 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 17.96%, and a net profit of 470 million yuan, up 49.64% [6][7] - Lijuz Group (000513) reported performance in line with expectations, with a revenue of 9.082 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a decrease of 5.94%, and a net profit of 1.673 billion yuan, an increase of 4.44% [10][11] - Changshu Bank (601128) achieved revenue of 8.370 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, an increase of 11.30%, and a net profit of 2.976 billion yuan, up 18.17% [15][16] Guibao Pet Analysis - The company’s proprietary brand is growing rapidly, with mid-to-high-end products like Freyget and Barf showing strong sales. New high-end dog food products have been launched, and sales during the Double Eleven shopping festival saw a significant increase [7][8] - Profitability is improving, with a gross margin of 41.84% in Q3 2024, up 3 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 13.07%, up 2.74 percentage points year-on-year. The increase is attributed to strong demand for mid-to-high-end products and improved sales channels [8][9] - The company is expected to maintain a strong growth trajectory, with projected net profits of 579 million yuan, 745 million yuan, and 925 million yuan for 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth rates of 35%, 28.75%, and 24.07% respectively [9] Lijuz Group Analysis - The company’s performance is stable, with a gross margin of 65.81% and a net profit margin of 21.43% for the first three quarters of 2024. The sales expense ratio decreased to 27.05% [10][11] - The digestive field is under short-term pressure, while reproductive, mental health, and diagnostic reagent sectors are performing well. The company is focusing on expanding its hospital coverage and developing new products [12][13] Changshu Bank Analysis - The bank's total assets reached 362.743 billion yuan, with a non-performing loan ratio of 0.77%. The net interest margin was 2.75%, down 20 basis points year-on-year [15][16] - The bank's loan growth is weak due to demand-side constraints, but deposit growth remains strong, indicating resilience in its deposit structure [16][17] - The bank's investment income has decreased significantly, reflecting a weaker bond market and regulatory pressures [18] Mechanical Industry Insights - The mechanical industry is expected to benefit from recent financial policies and technological innovations, with a current valuation below the historical average, indicating potential for growth [21][22] - Key investment themes include self-sufficiency, overseas manufacturing, and technological innovation, particularly in high-end machine tools and railway equipment [21][22] Automation Equipment Industry Trends - Domestic brands are gaining market share, with a focus on customized solutions and competitive pricing. The market is seeing a shift towards local brands due to their supply chain advantages [24][25] - The industry is experiencing a recovery in demand, particularly in sectors like textiles and electronics, which may drive growth for domestic automation brands [25][26] Macro Economic Overview - Recent policies have aimed to stabilize the economy, with measures in real estate and monetary policy expected to support growth. The government is focused on achieving a GDP growth target of around 5% for the year [27][28] - Economic indicators show some improvement, but overall corporate profit growth remains low, necessitating continued policy support [31][32]