晶盛机电：2024年三季报点评：Q3业绩受坩埚拖累，看好半导体领域布局深化

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Q3 performance was impacted by lower crucible prices and profitability, with revenue and net profit declining year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter [1] - Profitability pressure was mainly due to the crucible business, with gross margin and net profit margin declining significantly [1] - Inventory and contract liabilities decreased year-over-year, but cash flow remained healthy [1] - The company has achieved full coverage in photovoltaic equipment, including silicon wafer, battery, and module equipment [1] - The semiconductor equipment business is accelerating, with progress in large silicon wafers, advanced packaging, advanced processes, and SiC equipment [1] - The company is expanding its material business, including SiC substrates, quartz crucibles, diamond wires, and sapphire [1] - The company's growth is driven by three curves: photovoltaic equipment, photovoltaic and semiconductor consumables, and SiC materials and semiconductor equipment [1] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Revenue is expected to grow from 17,983 million yuan in 2023 to 22,718 million yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 6.47% [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to decline in 2024 but recover in 2025 and 2026, reaching 4,473 million yuan in 2026 [1] - EPS is forecasted to be 2.91 yuan in 2024, 2.97 yuan in 2025, and 3.42 yuan in 2026 [1] - The P/E ratio is expected to be 12.52x in 2024, 12.27x in 2025, and 10.66x in 2026 [1] Photovoltaic Equipment - The company has developed the fifth-generation low-oxygen single crystal furnace, which is a key trend in the industry [1] - Battery equipment includes PECVD, LPCVD, diffusion, annealing, ALD, and cleaning equipment compatible with BC and TOPCon processes [1] - Module equipment focuses on shingled module production lines [1] Semiconductor Equipment - The company is a leader in domestic crystal growth equipment, providing solutions for crystal growth, slicing, grinding, and polishing [1] - Advanced packaging equipment includes wafer thinning machines, with breakthroughs in 12-inch ultra-thin wafer technology [1] - Advanced process equipment includes 8-12 inch silicon epitaxial equipment, LPCVD, and ALD, with growing orders for 12-inch silicon epitaxial equipment [1] - SiC equipment includes crystal growth, slicing, thinning, polishing, epitaxial, and optical measurement equipment, with 8-inch SiC epitaxial equipment already in sales [1] Materials Business - The company has achieved mass production and sales of 8-inch SiC substrates [1] - Quartz crucible production capacity is being expanded, with ongoing R&D for high-quality super crucibles [1] - Diamond wire production has entered mass production, with plans for further expansion [1] - Sapphire business has seen rapid growth due to recovery in consumer electronics and LED industries [1] Financial Health - As of Q3 2024, contract liabilities were 6,585 million yuan, down 41% year-over-year, and inventory was 12,545 million yuan, down 20% year-over-year [1] - Operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 592 million yuan, down 15% year-over-year but up 259% quarter-over-quarter [1] - The company's cash flow situation remains healthy [1]