NMHD(SH:600863) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-28 19:11Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company, with a target price raised to 5.28 yuan from the previous 4.95 yuan [2][5]. Core Insights - The company's performance in Q3 2024 slightly exceeded expectations, with a total revenue of 16.58 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.47 billion yuan, an increase of 13.1% year-on-year [3][5]. - The integrated advantage of coal and electricity is evident, with Q3 2024 on-grid electricity generation at 15.42 billion kWh, down 4.2% year-on-year but up 18.5% quarter-on-quarter [5]. - The company continues to show improvement in free cash flow, with Q3 2024 free cash flow reaching 1.70 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1 billion yuan year-on-year, highlighting its dividend value [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a revenue of 16.58 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.4% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.47 billion yuan, an increase of 13.1% year-on-year [5]. - The Q3 2024 revenue was 5.81 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 700 million yuan, a slight increase of 0.2% year-on-year [5]. Production and Pricing - The company produced 3.727 million tons of coal in Q3 2024, an increase of 5.0% year-on-year, with an external sales ratio of 45.9% [5]. - The average coal price in Q3 2024 was 406.1 yuan per ton, up 8.9% year-on-year [5]. Cash Flow and Dividends - The company’s free cash flow has shown a continuous upward trend, with a notable increase in dividend value due to stable profitability and a commitment to distribute at least 70% of the distributable profits in cash dividends from 2022 to 2024 [5][13].