CNOOC(600938) 东吴证券·2024-10-28 23:30Investment Rating - Buy (Maintain)-A / Buy (Maintain)-H [1] Core Views - The company achieved revenue of 3260.2 billion yuan (YoY +6.3%) and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1166.6 billion yuan (YoY +19.5%) in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company signed new contracts for 4 offshore exploration blocks in Brazil, continuing to increase reserves and production [1] - The company's oil and gas net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (YoY +8.5%) in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company's capital expenditure increased by 5.9 billion yuan (YoY +7%) to 95.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024 [1] - The company's oil cost control is excellent, with the main cost per barrel of oil at 28.14 USD/barrel (YoY -0.8%) [1] - The company focuses on shareholder returns, with a predicted dividend payout of 64.5 billion yuan in 2024, representing a dividend yield of 5.0% for A-shares and 7.9% for H-shares [1] Financial Performance - The company's operating income is expected to grow from 445.777 billion yuan in 2024E to 498.762 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 5.8% [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to grow from 150.004 billion yuan in 2024E to 172.916 billion yuan in 2026E, with a CAGR of 7.4% [1] - The company's EPS is expected to grow from 3.16 yuan/share in 2024E to 3.64 yuan/share in 2026E [1] - The company's P/E ratio for A-shares is expected to decrease from 8.68x in 2024E to 7.53x in 2026E [1] - The company's P/E ratio for H-shares is expected to decrease from 5.43x in 2024E to 4.71x in 2026E [1] Production and Costs - The company's oil and gas net production reached 542.1 million barrels of oil equivalent (YoY +8.5%) in the first three quarters of 2024, with oil production at 422.4 million barrels (YoY +8%) and natural gas production at 19.7 billion cubic meters (YoY +10%) [1] - The company's oil sales price increased from 76.8 USD/barrel in the first three quarters of 2023 to 79.0 USD/barrel in the first three quarters of 2024 (YoY +3%) [1] - The company's main cost per barrel of oil was 28.14 USD/barrel (YoY -0.8%), with operating expenses at 7.21 USD/barrel (YoY -1.5%) [1] Capital Expenditure and Projects - The company's capital expenditure increased by 5.9 billion yuan (YoY +7%) to 95.3 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, mainly due to increased workload in ongoing projects and adjustment wells [1] - The company's 2024 capital expenditure target is 1250-1350 billion yuan, with a YoY growth rate of -4% to +4% [1] - The company's production growth is supported by the contribution of oil and gas fields such as Bozhong 19-6 and Enping 20-4, as well as the production increase from the Payara project in Guyana [1] Shareholder Returns - The company is expected to pay a dividend of 64.5 billion yuan in 2024, with a dividend yield of 5.0% for A-shares and 7.9% for H-shares [1] - The company's dividend payout ratio is expected to be 43% in 2024 [1]