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电子板块推荐点评：云厂商资本开支提速，AI维持高景气度
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-28 23:37

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic components industry [5] Core Insights - The four major cloud vendors are positioned as winners in the AI era, with steady growth in cloud business and increasing AI monetization rates. The demand for AI computing power is expected to continue [3] - Microsoft, Google, Meta, and Amazon are highlighted as key players, with expectations for their capital expenditures to accelerate and maintain high levels of AI demand [4] Summary by Relevant Sections Microsoft - In Q3, adjusted growth for Azure was reported at 3%, with AI contributing an additional 3%. The expected growth rates for AI contributions in FY24 are 5%, 9%, 10%, and 11% for Q1, Q2, Q3, and Q4 respectively. The consensus forecast for Azure's growth this quarter is 33%, with capital expenditure expectations for FY25 at $60.3 billion [4] Google - Google faces long-term challenges in the AI era, with its search and advertising sectors being fertile grounds for AI monetization. The consensus forecast for Google Cloud's growth this quarter is 31%, with capital expenditure expectations for FY24 and FY25 at $52 billion and $56 billion respectively [4] Meta - Meta is characterized as a cyclical growth stock, with a slowdown in growth after reaching 3 billion MAUs. However, its AI capabilities, including the development of 15 million ads through Gen AI, are enhancing its advertising business. The consensus capital expenditure expectations for FY24 and FY25 are $38.5 billion and $47.1 billion respectively [4] Amazon - Amazon's cloud business, AWS, is expected to face pressure from Microsoft, while its retail business stabilizes but remains weak. The consensus forecast indicates AWS is returning to a growth trajectory, with capital expenditure expectations for FY24 and FY25 not specified [4] Investment Opportunities - The report recommends continued investment in cloud companies such as Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and Meta, as well as AI hardware companies like Nvidia, AMD, Micron, and SMIC [4]