中原证券：晨会聚焦-20241029

Core Insights - The report highlights a recovery in the domestic market, with the automotive and military industries leading the A-share market's slight rise [5][10] - The central government's emphasis on macroeconomic stability and risk prevention is expected to enhance market confidence and support economic recovery [5][9] - The photovoltaic industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with significant revenue declines and a need for market clearing [13][14] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3,322.20, up 0.68%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 10,685.89, up 0.62% [3] - The A-share market saw a total trading volume of 19,046 billion, indicating a robust trading environment [8] - The average P/E ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext are at 14.03 and 36.80, respectively, suggesting a favorable long-term investment environment [8] Economic Indicators - In the first nine months of 2024, state-owned enterprises reported total operating income of 610,580.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.2%, while total profits decreased by 2.3% to 32,487 billion [5][8] - The GDP for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 949,746 billion, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, with signs of improvement in economic indicators in September [11] Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic sector is facing a significant downturn, with a 18.23% decline in revenue for 72 A-share photovoltaic companies in the first half of 2024, and a staggering 91.45% drop in net profit [13][14] - The automotive market showed resilience, with retail sales of passenger vehicles reaching 1.264 million units in October, a year-on-year increase of 16% [15][16] - The new energy vehicle market is expanding, with sales of 128.7 million units in September, marking a 42.3% increase year-on-year [16] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a "stronger than market" rating for the new materials sector, driven by increasing demand in manufacturing and technology [19][20] - Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors such as military, automotive, and consumer electronics for short-term opportunities [10][11] - The photovoltaic industry, despite its current challenges, may present rebound opportunities for leading companies with strong market positions [14]