Haitong Securities·2024-10-29 00:44Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [2][6]. Core Views - The report highlights that Great Wall Motors achieved a revenue of 142.25 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 19%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.43 billion yuan, which is a year-on-year increase of 109% [4]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 50.83 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 3.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 8% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 13% [4]. - The report notes a significant increase in overseas sales, with 123,000 vehicles sold in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 40% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 13% [5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q1-Q3 2024, Great Wall Motors sold 854,000 new vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 1%, with Q3 sales at 294,000 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 15% but a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3% [4]. - The average revenue per vehicle in Q3 2024 reached approximately 173,000 yuan, an increase of 29,000 yuan year-on-year and 200 yuan quarter-on-quarter, marking a historical high [4]. Cost and Profitability - In Q3 2024, the sales expense ratio increased to 4.8%, while the net profit margin decreased to 6.6%, reflecting higher sales and overseas marketing expenses [5]. - The report projects that the company will achieve new vehicle sales of approximately 1.45 million units in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 18% [6]. Valuation and Forecast - The forecast for revenue in 2024, 2025, and 2026 is approximately 223.9 billion yuan, 266.5 billion yuan, and 300.1 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits projected at 13.6 billion yuan, 16.2 billion yuan, and 19.1 billion yuan [6][9]. - The report assigns a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 18, 15, and 12 for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, suggesting a reasonable value range of 31.54 to 37.85 yuan per share [6].