跨资产观察周报：如何通过资产价格追踪美国大选？

Group 1 - The report discusses three traditional methods to observe the U.S. presidential election: popular polls, betting odds, and swing state polls. The electoral college system means that the overall popular vote does not determine the election outcome, making swing state votes crucial [4][5][6]. - Betting odds can be influenced by a few large clients on platforms like Polymarket, which may lead to inaccuracies in predicting election outcomes [5]. - Swing state polls are considered the most accurate method for predicting election results, as winning these states can significantly impact the electoral vote count [5][6]. Group 2 - The stock price of "Trump Media" (DJI) is closely tied to Trump's chances of winning the presidency, with a significant rebound of nearly 200% since late September after a notable drop earlier [9][10]. - Gold prices are rising due to heightened risk aversion in the market, indicating that investors are betting on Trump's potential return to power [11]. - Trump's changing stance on cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, has led to a significant increase in its value as his chances of winning the election improve [12][13]. Group 3 - The report indicates that Trump's chances of winning the upcoming election are substantial, but there are potential "black swan" events that could affect the outcome, such as issues with mail-in ballots and the possibility of a constitutional crisis [15][16]. - The electoral college adds a layer of unpredictability to the election, as historical instances of "faithless electors" have shown that the final outcome may not always align with the popular vote [17]. Group 4 - Recent market trends show that equity markets have been rebounding, with most sectors posting positive returns, particularly in power equipment, light industry manufacturing, and retail [25]. - The report highlights that the bond market is reacting cautiously to equity market movements, with yields fluctuating but overall showing a slight upward trend [18][19].