ACEG(600502) 长江证券·2024-10-29 02:33Investment Rating - The report maintains a Buy rating for Anhui Construction Engineering Group (600502 SH) [3] Core Views - Revenue and profitability continue to face pressure, with a year-on-year decline in both revenue and net profit [3] - New contract signings have resumed double-digit growth, indicating a potential recovery in business momentum [3][6] Financial Performance - Revenue: The company achieved revenue of 53 963 billion yuan in the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 9 96% Single-quarter revenue in Q3 was 20 502 billion yuan, down 8 71% year-on-year [3] - Net Profit: Net profit attributable to shareholders was 962 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9 55% Adjusted net profit was 860 million yuan, down 21 86% year-on-year [3] - Gross Margin: The comprehensive gross margin for the first three quarters was 12 22%, up 0 62 percentage points year-on-year However, the Q3 gross margin was 11 37%, down 0 32 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Expense Ratio: The expense ratio for the first three quarters was 8 46%, up 1 05 percentage points year-on-year, with increases in management and R&D expenses [4] - Cash Flow: Operating cash flow was a net outflow of 5 255 billion yuan in the first three quarters, with a cash collection ratio of 94 79%, down 11 66 percentage points year-on-year [5] New Contract Signings - Q3 New Contracts: The company signed new engineering contracts worth 31 475 billion yuan in Q3, a year-on-year increase of 17 85% [6] - Year-to-Date Contracts: Cumulative new contract signings for the first three quarters reached 103 762 billion yuan, up 2 21% year-on-year [6] - Business Structure Optimization: Infrastructure business accounted for 71 84% of total contracts, with a significant increase in water conservancy engineering contracts (up 333 41%) [6] - Emerging Business Growth: New contracts in design and testing, intelligent manufacturing, and building industrialization showed strong growth, with increases of 37 89%, 255 83%, and 0 20% respectively [6] Industry Context - The report highlights potential investment opportunities in local state-owned construction enterprises amid government debt resolution efforts [7] - The company's high dividend yield (28 7% in 2023) and expected stable dividend payout in 2024 are noted as attractive attributes [7] Market Performance - The current stock price is 4 90 yuan, with a 12-month high/low range of 5 34 yuan to 3 82 yuan [8] - The company's market performance over the past 12 months has shown fluctuations, with a notable divergence from the CSI 300 index [9]