ORIENTAL YUHONG(002271) 东方财富·2024-10-29 02:23Investment Rating - Maintain "Overweight" rating [2][4] Core Views - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 was RMB 21.699 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 14.44%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.277 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 45.73% [1] - Q3 revenue was RMB 6.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 23.84%, with net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 334 million, a year-on-year decrease of 67.23% [1] - The decline in revenue was mainly due to weak demand in the real estate sector, with retail channels performing better than engineering channels [1] - Gross margin remained stable in Q3 at 28.92%, supported by a decline in asphalt prices, a major cost component [1] - Sales expenses increased by 3.3% year-on-year to RMB 2.235 billion, and other income decreased by 35.87% to RMB 250 million, impacting net profit [1] - Operating cash flow improved, with a net outflow of RMB 492 million, a reduction of RMB 4.27 billion year-on-year, driven by better collection and reduced payments [1] - The company is expected to show performance elasticity following potential relaxation of real estate policies [1] Financial Performance - Total market capitalization: RMB 34.181 billion, with a circulating market capitalization of RMB 27.109 billion [3] - 52-week high/low stock price: RMB 25.30/RMB 9.75, with a 52-week decline of 39.05% [3] - 52-week high/low P/E ratio: 22.51/10.91, and 52-week high/low P/B ratio: 2.37/0.85 [3] - 52-week turnover rate: 634.01% [3] Profit Forecast - Revenue forecast for 2024-2026: RMB 303.87 billion, RMB 335.77 billion, and RMB 371.29 billion, with growth rates of -7.42%, 10.50%, and 10.58% respectively [5] - Net profit attributable to the parent company forecast for 2024-2026: RMB 19.96 billion, RMB 29.07 billion, and RMB 34.23 billion, with growth rates of -12.22%, 45.68%, and 17.73% respectively [5] - EPS forecast for 2024-2026: RMB 0.82, RMB 1.19, and RMB 1.40 [5] - P/E ratio forecast for 2024-2026: 17.13x, 11.76x, and 9.99x [5] Key Financial Ratios - Gross margin for 2024-2026: 28.09%, 28.44%, and 28.60% [7] - Net margin for 2024-2026: 6.60%, 8.70%, and 9.26% [7] - ROE for 2024-2026: 7.05%, 9.39%, and 10.05% [7] - Asset-liability ratio for 2024-2026: 45.76%, 45.23%, and 44.83% [7] Industry and Company Positioning - The company has a strong position in the waterproofing industry, with advantages in scale, channels, brand, and cost [1] - Recent expansion into civilian building materials and retail channels has shown positive results [1] - The company is expected to benefit from potential policy relaxation in the real estate sector [1]