ZMD(SH:688636)2024-10-29 02:41Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, anticipating significant growth in performance by 2025 due to an increase in orders and delivery trends [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 209 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 47.71%, and a net loss attributable to shareholders of 9.16 million yuan, reversing from a profit of 61.64 million yuan in the same period last year [2]. - Despite the current downturn in demand, the company expects a recovery in orders, particularly for its main product lines, with significant production ramp-up anticipated in 2025 [2]. - The gross margin improved to 49.7% for the first three quarters, an increase of 4.6 percentage points year-on-year, attributed to supply chain optimization and changes in product mix [2]. - The company has successfully achieved comprehensive autonomy in components, raw materials, and software systems, with a notable increase in orders in Q3, suggesting a potential delivery inflection point in Q4 [2]. - The company is exploring new fields such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude drones, which are expected to contribute to sustainable growth, with the low-altitude economy projected to reach a market size of 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025 [2]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected financial metrics for 2023 to 2026 include: - Revenue: 6.63 billion yuan in 2023, expected to drop to 4.30 billion yuan in 2024, then rise to 6.32 billion yuan in 2025, and reach 8.02 billion yuan in 2026 [6]. - Net profit: 0.96 billion yuan in 2023, declining to 0.17 billion yuan in 2024, recovering to 0.93 billion yuan in 2025, and further increasing to 1.33 billion yuan in 2026 [6]. - Gross margin is expected to stabilize between 45% and 50% in the future [2].