联想集团：深入智能化变革，AI PC迎商业化落地元年

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating to Lenovo Group (00992 HK) [2] Core Views - Lenovo is a global leader in "New IT" technology, with a comprehensive product portfolio spanning "device-edge-cloud-network-intelligence" [2] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the recovery of the PC market and the commercialization of AI PCs in 2024 [2] - AI-driven demand is expected to drive growth in both the IT hardware and software markets, with Lenovo's server and IT services businesses poised for expansion [2] - The shift from x86 to Arm architecture in AI PCs is expected to boost Lenovo's profitability [2] PC Market Recovery and AI PC Opportunities - The PC market is showing signs of recovery as inventory adjustments near completion, with global PC shipments expected to grow in 2024 [2] - 2024 is considered the first year of AI PC commercialization, with products featuring core AI capabilities being launched [2] - IDC predicts that AI PC sales in the consumer market will reach 130 8 billion by 2027, while the enterprise market will reach 100 9 billion [2] - Lenovo is among the first companies to enter the AI On phase, offering diverse and cost-effective AI PC options [2] AI-Driven IT Hardware and Software Expansion - The rise of AI applications, such as AIGC and large model training, is driving rapid growth in the AI server market [2] - Lenovo has launched the Lenovo Wentian server for the Chinese market, complementing its ThinkSystem brand with a dual-brand strategy [2] - Global IT spending is projected to reach 5 trillion in 2024, with IT services becoming the largest spending category for the first time [2] - Lenovo's TruScale service focuses on the "as-a-service" business model, offering solutions to facilitate AI commercialization [2] Arm Architecture and Profit Growth - The Arm architecture is gaining traction due to its low power consumption, addressing battery life concerns in AI PCs [2] - AI PCs based on Arm architecture offer advantages in energy efficiency, customization, integration, and flexibility, potentially replacing x86 as the mainstream choice [2] - Lenovo's Arm-based AI PCs are expected to drive higher profit margins due to cost advantages [2] Financial Projections and Valuation - Lenovo is expected to benefit from the recovery in global PC shipments, the commercialization of AI PCs, and the rapid growth of the AI industry [2] - Revenue for FY25/26/27 is projected at 62 33/67 61/72 14 billion, with net profit attributable to shareholders at 1 29/1 64/1 90 billion [2] - The company's valuation is supported by its leadership in the global PC and IT infrastructure solutions market [2] Industry Trends and Competitive Landscape - The PC market is recovering from a downturn caused by pandemic-driven demand shifts, with AI PCs expected to drive a new wave of growth [2] - Major PC manufacturers, including Lenovo, Dell, HP, Acer, Apple, and Asus, are actively launching AI PC products, intensifying competition [2] - Lenovo is a pioneer in the AI PC market, having entered the AI On phase ahead of competitors and offering a wide range of AI-enabled devices [2] Lenovo's AI PC Strategy - Lenovo has adopted a "four-end integration" strategy, focusing on AI PCs, AI tablets, AI phones, and AIoT devices [2] - The company's AI PCs feature embedded personal large models, local heterogeneous AI computing power, and robust data privacy protection [2] - Lenovo's AI PCs are competitively priced, with options starting at around 6000 RMB, catering to a wide range of consumer needs [2]