电子行业：端侧强智能揭开序幕，半导体AI需求真实且强劲

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the semiconductor industry, emphasizing strong demand driven by AI and consumer electronics [3][5][6]. Core Insights - The semiconductor market is expected to grow significantly, with a projected year-on-year increase of 12% in 2024, driven by AI applications and consumer electronics [3][5][6]. - The report highlights a recovery in inventory levels, with a forecasted decrease in inventory days from 134 days in Q2 2024 to approximately 124 days in Q3 2024 [4][24]. - The demand for AI-related products is set to accelerate, particularly in smartphones and PCs, with significant upgrades expected in processing power and memory requirements [5][6][22]. Demand Side Summary - Global smartphone shipments are projected to increase by 4% year-on-year and 11% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, driven by Apple and other major brands [3][34][47]. - The PC market is also showing signs of recovery, with a 6% quarter-on-quarter increase in shipments for Q3 2024, although year-on-year growth remains flat [38][48]. - The server market is expected to see a 10% year-on-year increase in shipments for Q3 2024, supported by rising capital expenditures from major cloud service providers [42][49]. Supply Side Summary - The utilization rate of wafer fabs is expected to rise to over 85% by the end of 2024, reflecting strong demand from advanced processes and localized production [4][51]. - The report anticipates a 5-7% increase in 300mm wafer shipments in Q3 2024, indicating a recovery in supply [4][5]. - DRAM equipment sales are projected to grow by 24% year-on-year, highlighting robust demand in the semiconductor equipment sector [4][5]. Price Trends Summary - The semiconductor price index is expected to rise by 2% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2024, with various segments experiencing price fluctuations [5][6]. - The report notes that while DRAM prices are expected to increase, NAND contract prices may see a decline of 3-8% in Q4 2024 due to cautious customer orders [5][6]. Market Outlook Summary - The global semiconductor market is projected to reach approximately $611 billion in 2024, with significant growth in memory and AI-related sectors [29][31]. - The report emphasizes the importance of AI in driving innovation and demand across various segments, marking a pivotal moment in the semiconductor industry [21][22].