Envicool(002837) 华安证券·2024-10-29 03:32Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Strong Q3 2024 performance with revenue of 1.159 billion yuan, up 39.16% YoY, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 169 million yuan, up 43.06% YoY [1] - Non-GAAP net profit of 163 million yuan, up 52.19% YoY, and basic EPS of 0.23 yuan, up 43.75% YoY [1] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the digital transformation wave, providing efficient thermal management solutions [1] - Liquid cooling technology, including direct and indirect cooling methods, is a key focus area, with the company offering comprehensive solutions [1] - Continued R&D investment, with R&D expenses of 226 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, up 32.46% YoY [1] - The company is a leading provider of precision thermal management solutions, serving industries such as cloud computing, data centers, and electric vehicle charging stations [1] - Revenue forecasts for 2024-2026 are 4.724 billion yuan, 6.194 billion yuan, and 7.885 billion yuan, respectively, with net profit forecasts of 528 million yuan, 696 million yuan, and 888 million yuan [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 was 3.529 billion yuan, with a projected increase to 4.724 billion yuan in 2024, 6.194 billion yuan in 2025, and 7.885 billion yuan in 2026 [2] - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 344 million yuan in 2023, with forecasts of 528 million yuan in 2024, 696 million yuan in 2025, and 888 million yuan in 2026 [2] - Gross margin remained stable at around 32% from 2023 to 2026 [2] - ROE is expected to increase from 13.9% in 2023 to 22.3% in 2026 [2] - EPS is projected to grow from 0.46 yuan in 2023 to 1.20 yuan in 2026 [2] Financial Ratios - Revenue growth rates for 2024-2026 are forecasted at 33.86%, 31.13%, and 27.30%, respectively [6] - Net profit growth rates for 2024-2026 are projected at 53.60%, 31.67%, and 27.62%, respectively [6] - Gross margin is expected to remain stable at around 32% from 2023 to 2026 [6] - ROE is forecasted to increase from 13.86% in 2023 to 22.34% in 2026 [6] - P/E ratios are expected to decrease from 68.43 in 2023 to 26.51 in 2026 [6] Cash Flow and Balance Sheet - Operating cash flow for 2023 was 453 million yuan, with forecasts of 122 million yuan in 2024, 168 million yuan in 2025, and 369 million yuan in 2026 [4] - Net cash flow from financing activities was -116 million yuan in 2023, with forecasts of 67 million yuan in 2024, -396 million yuan in 2025, and -299 million yuan in 2026 [4] - Total assets are projected to increase from 5.091 billion yuan in 2023 to 8.371 billion yuan in 2026 [5] - Total liabilities are expected to rise from 2.609 billion yuan in 2023 to 4.397 billion yuan in 2026 [5] Industry and Market Position - The company is a leader in precision thermal management solutions, with a strong presence in data center liquid cooling and electric vehicle charging station markets [1] - The company's liquid cooling technology is widely used in data centers and telecommunications, with a focus on both direct and indirect cooling methods [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for digital transformation and energy-efficient cooling solutions [1]