太极集团：业绩短期承压，人事变动有望带来积极影响

Investment Rating - Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - Short-term performance pressure due to high base effect and off-season factors, with significant declines in pharmaceutical industrial revenue [1] - New leadership changes expected to bring positive impacts, with potential for a performance turnaround [1] - Core product Huoxiang Zhengqi Oral Liquid underperformed, leading to revenue declines in key therapeutic areas [1] - Gross margin fluctuated due to structural changes, with pharmaceutical industrial gross margin dropping by 4.04pp to 61.11% [1] - Net profit margin has room for improvement, with channel inventory destocking ongoing [1] - Revenue and net profit forecasts adjusted due to underperformance of core products and external policy impacts on the chemical drug sector [1] Financial Performance Summary Revenue and Profit - 2024E revenue expected to be 12,892 million yuan, a 17% YoY decline [1] - 2024E net profit attributable to parent company expected to be 736 million yuan, a 10% YoY decline [1] - 2025E revenue forecasted at 14,242 million yuan, a 10% YoY increase [1] - 2025E net profit attributable to parent company forecasted at 867 million yuan, an 18% YoY increase [1] Key Financial Ratios - 2024E P/E ratio: 19.0, P/B ratio: 3.2 [1] - 2025E P/E ratio: 16.1, P/B ratio: 2.7 [1] - 2024E ROE: 16%, 2025E ROE: 16% [1] Segment Performance - Pharmaceutical industrial revenue in Q3 2024: 26.17 billion yuan, a 16.44% YoY decline [1] - Pharmaceutical commercial revenue in Q3 2024: 51.09 billion yuan, an 11.21% YoY decline [1] - Traditional Chinese medicine resource segment revenue in Q3 2024: 7.24 billion yuan, a 13.77% YoY decline [1] Cash Flow and Inventory - 2024E operating cash flow: 3,356 million yuan, a significant increase from 672 million yuan in 2023A [3] - Inventory turnover days in Q3 2024: 127 days, the highest in three years [1] - Accounts receivable turnover days in Q3 2024: 61 days, the highest in three years [1] Future Outlook - Revenue growth expected to rebound in 2025E and 2026E, with 10% and 11% YoY increases respectively [1] - Net profit growth expected to accelerate in 2025E and 2026E, with 18% and 16% YoY increases respectively [1] - Gross margin expected to stabilize around 47% in 2025E and 2026E [6] - Net profit margin expected to improve to 6.3% in 2025E and 6.7% in 2026E [6]