OPPEIN(603833) Huafu Securities·2024-10-29 04:01Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected stock price increase of over 20% relative to the market benchmark within the next six months [13]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 13.879 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year decrease of 16.2%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.031 billion yuan, down 12.1% year-on-year [1]. - Despite short-term industry demand pressures, there is an expectation for future demand improvement due to ongoing home furnishing subsidies and a gradual recovery in domestic consumer confidence [4]. - The company has a strong internal culture and execution capabilities, which are expected to enhance its market share amid favorable policies for leading companies [4]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - In Q3, the company achieved a revenue of 5.296 billion yuan, a decline of 21.2% year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.041 billion yuan, down 11.6% year-on-year [1]. - For the first three quarters, revenue from different product categories showed declines: cabinets down 22%, wardrobes down 19%, and bathroom products down 2% [2]. - Revenue from various channels also varied, with direct sales up 4% but wholesale down 19% [2]. Cost Control and Profitability - The gross margin for Q3 was 40.4%, an increase of 2.8 percentage points year-on-year, driven by improved margins in wardrobes and bathroom products [3]. - The company effectively managed its operating expenses, with a net profit margin of 19.7% for Q3, up 2.1 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - Operating cash flow for the first three quarters was 2.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 28% year-on-year, primarily due to reduced cash receipts from sales [3]. Financial Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 2.58 billion yuan, 2.59 billion yuan, and 2.72 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of -15.1%, 0.6%, and 4.8% [4]. - The current stock price corresponds to a P/E ratio of 17x for 2024 and 25, with the TTM P/E at the 11.7% percentile since its listing [4].