Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry [6][22]. Core Insights - The report indicates a significant recovery in the domestic excavator market, with sales expected to reach approximately 16,000 units in October 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10% [2][4]. - The domestic market is projected to see a near 18% increase in sales, driven by a new round of equipment replacement cycles and supportive government policies [2][4]. - The report highlights that the overall sales of excavators in China from January to October 2024 are expected to remain stable, with a narrowing decline in sales [2][3]. Summary by Sections Sales Data - In September 2024, excavator sales reached 15,831 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.8% [3]. - For the first nine months of 2024, total excavator sales were 147,381 units, showing a slight decline of 1.0% year-on-year, with domestic sales increasing by 8.6% [3]. Market Dynamics - The report notes that the domestic excavator operating hours have shown a continuous year-on-year increase since February 2024, with September's operating hours up by 6.9% [4][22]. - The export market is also recovering, with a projected growth of nearly 3% in sales, aided by the completion of inventory adjustments and moderate demand recovery in certain overseas markets [2][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report emphasizes the positive impact of infrastructure and water conservancy demands, alongside the gradual implementation of equipment renewal policies, which have led to a sustained increase in domestic excavator sales for seven consecutive months [4][22]. - Key companies to watch include Hengli Hydraulic, SANY Heavy Industry, and XCMG, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in domestic demand, as well as Zoomlion and Zhejiang Dingli, which are focusing on international expansion [4][22].
机械行业事件点评：CME观测10月我国挖机销量约1.6万台，同比增长约10%
Xiangcai Securities·2024-10-29 05:40