煤炭行业周报：动力煤价格反弹，冬储需求逐步释放

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" (maintained) [6][8] Core Views - The coal sector saw a slight increase of 0.3% last week, underperforming the benchmark index (CSI 300) by 0.5 percentage points, with PE and PB valuations at 11.8 times and 1.4 times respectively, indicating a slight week-on-week decline [3][4] - Domestic thermal coal prices have rebounded, supported by increased heating demand in northern regions due to falling temperatures, while overseas prices have decreased [4][5] - Downstream demand for coking coal is entering a weak season, leading to price declines in both domestic and international markets [5][6] Summary by Sections Market Review - The coal sector increased by 0.3% last week, while the CSI 300 rose by 0.8%, resulting in a 0.5 percentage point underperformance [3] - The PE valuation for the coal sector is at 11.8 times, in the 62.9% percentile over the past decade, and the PB valuation is at 1.4 times, in the 54.5% percentile, showing a slight week-on-week decline [3] Price Trends - Domestic thermal coal prices have stopped falling and started to rebound, with the Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal price at 865 CNY/ton, a 0.58% increase week-on-week [4] - International thermal coal prices have decreased, with Australian NEWC at 146 USD/ton, European ARA at 119 USD/ton, and South African RB at 110 USD/ton, showing declines of 0.68%, 0.83%, and 1.79% respectively [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply constraints are noted due to production halts at some coal mines and safety incidents, leading to a slight contraction in overall coal supply [4] - Northern heating demand is expected to increase as temperatures drop, supporting a rebound in thermal coal prices despite a seasonal decline in southern demand [4][6] Investment Recommendations - For thermal coal, while southern regions are entering a low-demand season, northern heating demand is expected to boost consumption, indicating potential price increases [6][42] - For coking coal, the demand is expected to weaken, leading to a bearish outlook on prices [6][42] - The report suggests focusing on leading coal companies with strong resource endowments, maintaining an "Overweight" rating for the industry [6][42]