CNOOC(600938) Minsheng Securities·2024-10-29 06:00Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [3]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 326.02 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 116.66 billion yuan, up 19.5% year-on-year [1]. - In Q3 2024, the company reported a revenue of 99.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.5%, but a net profit of 36.93 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.0% [1]. - The company signed four new oil contracts in Brazil, indicating strong potential for future production growth [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 416.61 billion yuan, with a slight decline of 1.3%, while 2024 is expected to see a revenue increase to 424.82 billion yuan, a growth of 2.0% [2][4]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 123.84 billion yuan in 2023, with a significant recovery to 146.98 billion yuan in 2024, representing an 18.7% increase [2][4]. - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to rise from 2.61 yuan in 2023 to 3.09 yuan in 2024 [2][4]. Production and Cost Management - The company reported a net oil and gas production of 179.5 million barrels of oil equivalent in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 7% [1]. - The average realized price for oil was 76.41 USD per barrel in Q3 2024, down 8.2% year-on-year, while natural gas prices increased by 2.6% to 7.75 USD per thousand cubic feet [1]. - The company's cost control remains strong, with the main cost per barrel at 28.14 USD, a slight decrease of 0.8% year-on-year [1]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to see net profits of 146.98 billion yuan, 156.51 billion yuan, and 164.99 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with corresponding EPS of 3.09 yuan, 3.29 yuan, and 3.47 yuan [2][4]. - The report highlights the potential for valuation recovery for state-owned enterprises as performance evaluation systems are updated [1].