YANGYUAN(SH:603156) Guoyuan Securities·2024-10-29 06:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [2][9] Core Views - The company reported total revenue of 4.229 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.81%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.229 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.69% year-on-year [2] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved total revenue of 1.287 billion yuan, a decline of 18.79% year-on-year, and a net profit of 199 million yuan, down 47.26% year-on-year [2][3] - The company is expanding its dealer network, with the number of dealers increasing to 2,512 by the end of Q3, a net increase of 387 from the previous quarter [3] Revenue and Profitability - For the first three quarters of 2024, the revenue from the distribution channel decreased by 9.79% to 3.965 billion yuan, while the direct sales channel saw an increase of 26.72% to 239 million yuan [3] - The gross profit margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 46.53%, an increase of 1.22 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 29.07%, up 0.96 percentage points year-on-year [3] - In Q3 2024, the gross profit margin was 45.49%, a slight decrease of 0.16 percentage points year-on-year, and the net profit margin was 15.49%, down 8.36 percentage points year-on-year [3] Financial Forecast - The company is expected to achieve net profits of 1.383 billion yuan, 1.509 billion yuan, and 1.702 billion yuan for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with growth rates of 5.74%, 9.06%, and 12.79% [2][3] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are projected to be 19, 18, and 16 times, respectively, based on the market capitalization of 26.7 billion yuan as of October 28 [2]