SRCB(SH:601825) Haitong Securities·2024-10-29 06:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1] Core Views - The company reported a year-on-year increase in both revenue and profit for Q3 2024, with revenue up by 0.6% and net profit attributable to shareholders up by 1.2% [4] - The bank's wealth management system is steadily advancing, optimizing deposit maturity structure while reducing liability costs [4] - Asset quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan ratio holding steady at 0.97% in Q3 2024 [4] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue increased by 0.3% year-on-year, and net profit rose by 0.8% [4] - The core Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio improved by 1.26 percentage points to 14.51% [4] - The bank's savings AUM balance reached 546.43 billion yuan, a growth of 7.5%, while non-savings AUM was 239.23 billion yuan, up by 0.7% [4] Interest Margin and Income - The net interest margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 1.47%, a decrease of 2 basis points compared to the first half of 2024 [5] - The bank's net interest income decreased by 4.0% year-on-year in Q3 2024 [5] - The report predicts EPS for 2024-2026 to be 1.29, 1.35, and 1.42 yuan, with net profit growth rates of 2.69%, 4.23%, and 5.44% respectively [5] Valuation Metrics - The reasonable value range for the company is estimated to be between 8.42 and 9.06 yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 6.51-7.01 times for 2024 [5] - The bank's PB valuation for 2024 is set at 0.65 times, compared to a peer average of 0.57 times [5] Comparative Analysis - The bank's average ROE for 2023 is 11.33%, with projected values of 10.51%, 9.89%, and 9.47% for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [6] - The bank's non-performing loan coverage ratio is projected to be 362.69% in 2024, indicating a strong buffer against potential loan losses [6]