Shanghai Ganglian(SZ:300226) Haitong Securities·2024-10-29 06:11Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 20.251 billion yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 26.38%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 43 million yuan, down 10.02% year-on-year [5] - The decline in profit is primarily due to increased taxes and impacts related to government subsidies [5] - The company is transitioning to recognize data resources as intangible assets, which is expected to enhance the value of its data elements [6] - The company has received recognition for its innovative applications in data elements, winning first place in a national competition [7] - Future profit forecasts for the company are 203 million yuan, 263 million yuan, and 307 million yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with expected growth rates of -15.5%, 29.7%, and 16.4% [8] Financial Performance - The company’s total revenue for 2023 is projected at 86.314 billion yuan, with a slight decrease to 81.792 billion yuan in 2024, and a further decrease to 81.679 billion yuan in 2025 [9] - The net profit for 2023 is estimated at 240 million yuan, with a forecast of 203 million yuan for 2024, and an increase to 263 million yuan in 2025 [9] - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is expected to be 0.63 yuan, increasing to 0.82 yuan in 2025 and 0.95 yuan in 2026 [12] Business Segmentation - The industrial data service segment reported revenue of 198 million yuan in Q3 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 1.98%, while the steel trading service segment generated revenue of 20.053 billion yuan, down 26.56% year-on-year [5][11] - The overall revenue for the company is projected to grow at a rate of 12.73% in 2023, followed by a decline of 5.24% in 2024, and a slight recovery in subsequent years [11] Market Comparison - The company’s stock closed at 25.88 yuan, with a market capitalization of 83.29 billion yuan [1] - The company’s P/E ratio is projected to be 36-40 times for 2025, with a reasonable value range of 29.52-32.80 yuan [8]