赛特新材：盈利阶段性波动，以旧换新政策加码订单有望改善

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [3] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 668 million yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 12.94%, but the net profit attributable to shareholders decreased by 17.74% to 65.14 million yuan [1] - In Q3 2024, the company's revenue was 216 million yuan, down 9.16% year-on-year, and the net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 70.85% to 10.98 million yuan [1] - The decline in Q3 earnings is attributed to changes in sales structure, underperformance of new subsidiaries, and increased financial expenses due to convertible bond issuance and exchange rate fluctuations [1] - The introduction of a national appliance replacement policy in July-August is expected to improve order performance in Q4 [1] - The company's gross margin has been declining due to rising raw material prices and changes in sales structure, with a Q3 gross margin of 26.78%, down 9.14 percentage points year-on-year [1] - Operating cash flow for Q3 was 31 million yuan, an increase of 133.78% year-on-year, indicating good receivables collection [1] Financial Forecast and Investment Suggestions - The long-term growth trend of the vacuum insulation board industry remains intact, with the company expected to benefit from advanced manufacturing processes and products [1] - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2024-2026 are 90 million, 130 million, and 180 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 30, 21, and 15 [1][2] - The report emphasizes the potential of the vacuum glass project, which is currently in the pre-mass production phase, highlighting its energy-saving attributes and market potential [1]