同庆楼：短期直营模式承压，跟踪需求转暖信号

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [1][8][10] Core Views - The company experienced a revenue decline of 1.23% in Q3 2024, with a net profit of 0.02 billion yuan, down 95.74% year-on-year. For the first three quarters of 2024, revenue was 18.65 billion yuan, an increase of 10.81%, while net profit decreased by 58.92% to 0.83 billion yuan [3][5] - The overall performance is under pressure due to several factors: a decline in same-store sales, the impact of rapid expansion, and increased financial costs. Same-store revenue fell by 13.42% compared to 2023, with a significant drop in Q3 [3][4] - The company plans to accelerate its direct store expansion, aiming to add 260,000 square meters of new store area in 2024, more than doubling the actual area opened in 2023. However, the new stores are currently in a loss-making phase [4][5] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2024, the company achieved revenue of 5.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.23%, and a net profit of 0.02 billion yuan, down 95.74%. For the first three quarters, revenue was 18.65 billion yuan, up 10.81%, while net profit was 0.83 billion yuan, down 58.92% [3][5] - The company’s financial expenses increased significantly, with Q3 financial costs rising by nearly 20 million yuan year-on-year due to increased capital expenditures and long-term borrowings [5][11] Expansion Strategy - The company is in a rapid expansion phase, with plans to open 260,000 square meters of new stores in 2024. By the end of Q3 2024, 220,000 square meters had already been opened, contributing 3.57 billion yuan in revenue, but incurring losses of approximately 30 million yuan during the ramp-up period [4][5] - The company’s liquidity assets accounted for 87% of total assets, indicating a significant asset-heavy nature, which increases performance volatility in the current demand environment [4][5] Market Outlook - The company is a leader in the fine dining banquet segment, but its expansion strategy is currently constrained by a decline in demand and changing consumer preferences. There are signs of potential demand recovery, particularly in wedding bookings, which could positively impact future performance [5][8] - The forecast for 2024-2026 indicates a projected revenue of 25.91 billion yuan, 32.42 billion yuan, and 38.89 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to be 1.38 billion yuan, 2.80 billion yuan, and 3.84 billion yuan [8][9]