Zhejiang Dahua Technology (002236) 中泰证券·2024-10-29 06:42Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is experiencing pressure on its Q3 performance, but there is potential for recovery in downstream sectors due to policy catalysts [4] - The company is expected to benefit from the ongoing digital transformation and the AI wave, with improvements in model capabilities and cost efficiency [3] - The macroeconomic uncertainty has led to a downward adjustment in the company's earnings forecast for 2024-2026 [3] Financial Performance Summary - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 22.45 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.77%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.545 billion yuan, a decline of 1.74% year-on-year [4] - In Q3 alone, the company reported revenue of 7.583 billion yuan, a decrease of 0.8% year-on-year and a 12.69% decline quarter-on-quarter [4] - The gross profit margin for Q3 was 39.90%, down 2.37 percentage points year-on-year [4] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company's revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 32.927 billion yuan, 36.714 billion yuan, and 41.303 billion yuan, respectively [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 3.303 billion yuan in 2024, 3.980 billion yuan in 2025, and 4.764 billion yuan in 2026 [1] - The P/E ratios for the forecasted years are 16.4 for 2024, 13.6 for 2025, and 11.4 for 2026 [1] Market Position and Business Segments - The company has seen a recovery in its overseas business, which has helped offset pressures in its domestic operations [4] - Government business segments, particularly in social governance and digital upgrades in transportation, are showing positive growth [4] - The company has a strong position in the machine vision sector and is expected to benefit from the implementation of edge AI scenarios [3]