HANGYANG LIMITED(SZ:002430) Guotai Junan Securities·2024-10-29 06:43Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Accumulate" for the company [2][5]. Core Views - The company's Q3 2024 performance met expectations, with steady growth in pipeline gas business and a potential recovery in bulk gas prices, leading to an expected increase in both volume and price in retail gas business [3][5]. - The company’s revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 10.353 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.85%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 675 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 20.68% [5]. - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in gas prices due to downstream demand recovery, despite short-term pressure on profitability from declining gas prices [5]. Financial Summary - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 14.328 billion yuan in 2024 to 18.692 billion yuan in 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of approximately 14.3% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to decrease to 1.082 billion yuan in 2024, before recovering to 1.559 billion yuan by 2026 [6]. - The report adjusts the company's EPS forecasts for 2024-2026 to 1.10, 1.32, and 1.58 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates [5][6]. Market Data - The target price for the company has been raised to 30.36 yuan, based on a 23 times PE ratio for 2025, compared to the current price of 24.66 yuan [2][5]. - The average price of liquid oxygen, nitrogen, and argon has shown weekly increases, indicating a potential upward trend in gas prices [5]. Business Operations - The pipeline gas business is expected to provide stable cash flow, with long-term supply contracts in place [5]. - The retail gas business is anticipated to benefit from a cyclical recovery, with gas prices expected to rise from current lows [5]. - Equipment orders remain robust, with a total order value of 3.781 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, indicating strong demand in the sector [5].